BlackBerry Undervalued: Investors Ignorant of Q10, Z10 Brand Strengths (bbry unit sales, smartphone market share)

         While BlackBerry has yet to release a low-end, more affordable BB10 phone to compete with Nokia's $99 Asha 501, I don't see that as being a major problem for the company going forward;  1) Its core customer base is still the high end corporate market 2) The market for high-end phones in key international markets is growing (Indonesia, South Africa, India), one reason for that is the modernization of mobile infrastructure capable of handling more data / 4G.  BlackBerry is the top smartphone brand in Indonesia, South Africa, Argentina and a top three player in India behind Samsung and Nokia.
more...   that doesn't mean however that Research In Motion does not need to eventually introduce a more affordable product.  BlackBerry 7 devices (Torch, Bold, Curve) remain popular in the East and with RIM scaling back production of that line, at least one of the newest phones (running on OS10) will need to be introduced to fill in the gap. 

BlackBerry Detractors Already Admitting Defeat
One of BlackBerry's harshest critics, an analyst at Cannacord which had slashed its sales estimate for BB10 phones earlier this year, is already calling the estimate wrong, off by at least half a million units per month. 
Early indicators suggest sales of the both the keypad (Q10) and candybar (Z10) phones are strong however it should be noted that those statistics don't take into account most international markets where the devices have yet to be launched.

Nearly 60% of RIM's 2012 revenue originated outside the US, UK and Canada.  In the Middle East where BlackBerry holds the leading share of the market for new phones at 35%, sales of the Z10 phone though not overwhelming remain promising at a rate of just over 250,000 units a month in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.  The figure doesn't include the Q10, something that has to be taken into account given that the keyboard remains popular among clients in the Gulf region.

Over the past year, Nokia introduced many of its key new smartphones while BlackBerry released nothing new (no full quarters reported on yet).  Despite this, BlackBerry somehow managed to sell the same number of smartphones as Nokia in the most recent quarter (4q2013).  The 6 million unit figure represents just under 3.0% of the global smartphone market, not bad considering BB10 was out for only a month in limited capacity (not available in the US) and that the phones have received rave reviews since being launched in the United States in April 2013.  Altogether, RIM sold 28.1 million smartphones in fiscal 2013 (March to March). 
Last month (April 15 to May 10) Research In Motion stock was up +14% making it one of the best performing tech stocks.

Battery life:  Can't go wrong with the Q10 ! 

The Q10 battery is larger and longer lasting when compared to OS7 phones.  The result ?  10-12 hours of device use on a single charge, more than double what the competitors have to offer.  This is just one reason why I'm optimistic about corporate clients remaining with BlackBerry.  Canadian Tire which has over 3,000 corporate users is one of several major companies already committed to the BlackBerry 10 models.

More reasons to buy Research In Motion:  23 of the 25 leading mobile carriers in the US, EU5 and Canada carry BlackBerry's newest Z10 smartphone compared to only 14 for the Nokia Lumia 920 meaning that RIM is poised to eventually outstrip Nokia in smartphone sales.  Not bad for a company with a market capitalization 40-70% lower.
RIM is succeeding in the high end market whereas Nokia is making a push for the low end market.  I don't expect sales at Nokia to best BlackBerry anytime soon, with Nokia's devices being low-end their margins are quite limited.  Even BlackBerry 7 phones are more profitable than Nokia's newest, and profit from one Z10 equals profit from three Lumias.

Gold Demand Remains Strong Despite Dip In Price (China, ETF, jewelry, bullion, central banks, supply)

     
          Between January 2012 and January 2013 central banks showed an insatiable desire for gold !   Even though prices weren't as high as they were in 2011 ($1895 in September 2011 vs $1780 September 2012) they were high enough as to give holders of the yellow metal a unique opportunity to sell at a generous price. 

So did debt laden countries sell ?  NOPE !  in fact just the opposite happened:

Italy kept its reserves stable at 2451.8 tonnes but because its total reserves fell slightly the % of reserves represented by gold went up from 71.0% -> 72.5%. 

Holdings by Greece actually went up 0.3 t to 111.9 tonnes which means gold now represents 82.7% of reserves up from 81.5% last year.

 Spain 29.7% -> 30.4%        281.6 tonnes ranks #18 globally

 

more information about gold reserves at International Gold Reserves by Country

 

China The Sleeping Giant

Though officially no significant movement was made by the Chinese, the world's second largest economy has routinely showed interest in boosting its reserves.  $3.3 trillion is in American dollars but the gold that it has is only worth around $50 billion (at a spot price of around $1500 an ounce). 

China has been the leading gold producing nation since 2007, at 370 tonnes in 2012 (+15t), its output is about the same as Russia and South Africa combined.  Because most of the gold is mined at many small operations by minor companies, it's not so easy to keep track of where all that gold ends up.  Taking into consideration the large number of nationalized companies in China and that almost none of China's gold output makes it out of the country, it's possible that Chinese reserves are higher than officially stated.  The only incentive China would have to not disclose the actual amount is to keep the price relatively stable, since skyrocketing gold prices would wreak havoc to their consumer market (jewelry demand alone is 265.5 tonnes, more than total US consumer demand in 2012).
America's excessive printing of money is another reason China needs to diversify out of the US dollar.  Gold represents only 1.7% of China's reserves compared to 64.1% average for all other countries (up from 62.6%).  To put things into perspective, if China's gold represented the same fraction of total reserves as US holdings do, China would have 5.8 times as much gold as the United States (47.2 tonnes).

Gold Demand for jewelry (-3.2%), bullion (-17.1%) down in 2012 but demand by central banks (457 -> 535t), ETF's (185 -> 279t), and China (779.8 -> 776.1t) remains strong.

 

Countries More Picky About Where Gold Is Stored

Germany announced earlier in 2013 that it wants to repatriate 674 tonnes of its reserves from American (300 tonnes) and French (374 tonnes) vaults.  Other countries such as Switzerland are also thinking about doing the same thing.  Switzerland has 20% of its reserves in the UK, 10% in Canada; Switzerland did this originally as a way to keep its gold safe during war times.

Grocery Stocks On The Move Carrefour Group CA, Sysco SYY, Sobeys

Food stocks Sysco syy, Carrefour Group and Empire Company Limited provide opportunity for investors at a time when there's not much to be enthusiastic about. 

In Canada, the weaker dollar is akin to an interest rate cut, discouraging spending in that country.
In the mining industry, weaker gold and silver prices cut into profit margins last year, leading to weaker results (eight of the world's tens largest gold companies reported a drop in earnings last year).

Weak jobs numbers in the United States affects the world's biggest consumer market making companies involved in the clothing industry riskier investments, and now bank stocks could be hit as a result of uncertainty in Cyprus.  Confiscating people's bank accounts will undoubtedly cause many in Europe to keep their money out of banks since many of Europe's largest financial institutions are based in Italy and Spain, two countries that could follow Cyprus's example if the Troika's new bailout rules are instituted elsewhere.  Will banks like Banco Santander allow money from client account to be taken in order to pay down national debts ?

 But Grocery Stocks Are Different!

People don't have a choice when it comes to eating.  Stockpiling food isn't something most will be considering either since people are increasingly health concious which makes them reliable on perishable foods (since the alternative is food that's loaded with unhealthy preservatives). 

Grocery stocks have grown nicely over the last year despite the inability of many to hike prices in step with price inflation (Tesco for example reported +1.8% increase in same-store sales for the three months ended January 5, 2013 despite lower market share and lower sales of frozen food).  Also in the UK: grocery industry market growth +3.7% lags general inflation +4.3%.

This month, Empire Company Limited (emp.a) reported a drop in gross profit margin (24% to 23%) and a 32% decline in cash equivalents as well as 6% decline in net earnings but the stock remained in positive terroritory despite that (+12% last three months). The food division, Sobeys profited 8% more but that was because the food division includes gas stations (236 Shell gas stations purchased last year). Sobeys is the second largest grocery retailer in Canada but third largest in Canada's biggest market, Ontario.


Carrefour Group (euronext:ca) is another example of a solid growth stock.  In 2012 the food retailer profited 3.3 times more than the previous year (€1.233 billion) despite a sales increase of just 0.5% and a decline in ebit of -1.6%.  It turns out the company's assets are more valuable that people think !  CEO Georges Plassat has been been busy steering the company in a more profitable direction.  He thought that operating in 30 countries was too demanding and so Carrefour started selling off assets, starting with Greece.  Competition in the countries Carrefour has been exiting is high and that makes its businesses attractive to potential buyers.  Colombian operations were sold for $2.5 billion which represents 20 times enterprise value/ebitda, investors liked the return and the stock moved higher.  In 2012 Carrefour pulled out of five countries.  The money from the asset sales helped the company pay down net debt (€6.9 billion to €4.3 billion).  The next country Carrefour is contemplating leaving is Turkey and you be sure the return it will get for assets there will be at a premium.
Carrefour also has an insurance division that has exposure to South America (35% of 1b net banking income is from Argentina and Brazil).  Carrefour stock price +10.85% last three months, +32.31% last six months.

Gold Prices In Limbo, BlackBerry BBRY Gradual Trend Upwards, Heinz Takeover A Foreign Acquisition HNZ

A lot has happened since my last post so I'll be brief. 
Gold and silver price shows weakness despite a surge in demand.
The price of gold (and even moreso silver) has been weak despite

1) Record sales of silver eagles during the months of January and February
2) Increasing demand on the comex for both precious metals
3) Russia and China continuing their buying spree
4) Growing evidence that some of the popular gold and silver ETFs have only paper claims - which they can't physically backup.

Though I maintain that over the long run, you're safest investment route is in physical gold and silver, over the short term, prices might trend lower ... much lower.
In fact Goldman Sachs thinks that gold is on its way down to $1200 an ounce - a fall of almost 30% from current levels, pushed down by US interest rates which are on their way up (whether the economy stabilizes or not, interest rates can't get any lower than they are now).

I can both agree and disagree with their assessment.  Higher interest rates can depress prices but I think that other factors will eventually come into play that will counteract the effect.  The fiscal cliff is just starting to kick in which will eventually create a need for more quantitative easing: QE3, followed by QE4, QE5, ... etc.  The US trade deficit remains only marginally lower than it was in 2011 ($540.4b vs $559.9b) despite big jumps in fuel sales to overseas buyers/crude output reaching 766,000 bpd which is a 15 year high, so imagine what would happen if oil production and fuel sales declined, which John Kerry's policies appear to favor.

But with the Chinese yuan renminbi continuing to depreciate against the American dollar, there's no reason to expect the trade gap with China to alter significantly anytime soon.
What about China ?  The world's second largest economy and key purchaser of US and European debt (electric grid in Portugal now owned by Chinese company) is facing new problems of its own some geopolitical others domestic.  Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision Industry) which is the leading supplier of components for America's biggest company Apple Inc (AAPL), has stopped hiring new workers - a stock selloff ensued as investors took that to mean that sales of Apple's products are falling off.  However, at the same time Foxconn expressed an interest in opening new manufacturing centers overseas (suggesting that perhaps the problem is with China/ Apple wants more American workers).
For January 2013, foreign direct investment (FDI) into China was down 7.3% to $9.3 billion which is a four year low, in fact it's the largest decline since November 2009 (-9.9%)

Interest in BlackBerry is Growing and it's not just from Business Clients

                    This month, BlackBerry launched the first in a line of QNX powered smartphones running on the totally redesigned blackberry 10 platform.  I spent a lot of time last year defending RIM's strategy, technology and reputation and so it's refreshing to finally see the company get credit for all the R&D that went into developing their current products (the Z10 is groundbreaking and that's just what RIM needed to keep detractors at bay, otherwise, attacking them would be very easy to do considering BlackBerry's US market share remains quite low). 

The company took quite a beating the last two years for sticking to its own platform (and apps) while remaining steadfast in their dedication to security and to serving the needs of corporate clients.  Though the PlayBook remains a work in progress (sales steady but only because the market is growing) the new line of handheld devices are proving popular among both business and non business clients, giving shareholders more reason to be optistic.  Investors take note ! - The new BlackBerry Z10 was first released in the UK followed by Canada (February) then finally the United States (March) meaning that sales figures won't fully show up in quarterly reports until the summer (next results will be released in March followed by June).  Over the last 3 months BlackBerry (Nasdaq : BBRY) is up +23.6% which outperforms other techstocks Nokia (+18.93%), Apple (-23.96%) and even Google (+19.24%). 

Demand for the BlackBerry Z10 must be solid given that RIM has already increased  production capacity.

According to CEO Thorsten Heins

"we still have an installed base of 79 million subscribers. And BlackBerry 10 offers something that Windows Phone cannot, namely, the strict separation of business and personal information. The Microsoft operating system cannot imitate times just between evening news and weather reports". 

Heinz Gets Acquired But Who's Really In Control ? Brazil's 3G Capital or Omaha's Buffet ?

                   And finally, Heinz Ketchup gets taken over by investment firms Berkshire Hathaway, 3G Capital.  It's $23 billion in cash with the rest of the $28 billion figure stemming from Heinz's $5 billion debt load ($4.1 billion long term).  What's notable about this takeover is that 3G Capital, the foreign company involved is actually the company receiving a controlling interest not Berkshire Hathaway.  Former shareholders are obviously happy with the 20% premium they received but what about the employees in Pittsburgh, who will now have to accept that most important decisions concerning the company will be made in Brazil.

Palladium Production Leaders Record Lower Volumes, revenue by metal companies Norilsk, AngloPlatinum, Lonmin

Between 2003 and 2010 palladium prices averaged 20% to 25% the price of platinum before reaching today's high of around 40%.  There are many reasons for this
- Toyota using palladium in place of platinum in catalytic converters,
- Palladium was less affected by the problems in South Africa
- Lower Russian output.  The price ratio could increase even more in the future because supplies haven't been tight as compared to alternatives platinum and rhodium. 
- According to some analysts, there was a platinum overproduction of half a million ounces in 2012.

Norilsk Nickel nilsy is the world's largest nickel producer and ranks among the top five companies in terms of platinum reserves.  The company operates in Russia, Finland, Botswana, South Africa and Australia.  The Norilsk deposit in Russia was among the first exploited platinum deposits.

From January to September 2012 Norilsk produced 2.077 million ounces of palladium, down 1.2% from 2011.  Russia was the source of 96.1% or 1.996 million ounces.
In interim 2012 the company earned $1.481 billion (-22.0% from $1.818b) on revenues of $5.929 billion (-19.2% from $7.335 billion).  Revenue attributable to palladium:  1h2012 15.7% (1h2011 15.5%).

Anglo American Platinum pink:agppy - Palladium production down for the nine month period but up 4.3% in the 3rd quarter (376k oz -> 392k oz).  Sales of platinum group metals:  3275 million ounces (-7.45% from 3535m oz).
Prices achived:   Platinum $1513 (-14.8%), Palladium $637 (-17.4%), Rhodium $1304 (-39.3%), Nickel $17,159 (-30.1%).  Cash operating costs per ounce of platinum produced:  R14,976 +14.4%.  Unki production +20% year on year.  An illegal mine strike cost the company 2,000 oz of platinum output in the third quarter.
Biggest contributor to revenue is the Mogalakwena Mine.  Mogalakwena contributed 24.8% of six month revenue came from the mine (-8.6%).  9m2012:  $983,000 down from $1,038,000 in 2011.
% revenue from palladium:  16.4% down from 14.9% last year. 

Stillwater Mining Company nyse:swc, tsx:swc

• Has a three year agreement with General Motors Corporation for a monthly delivery of a fixed amount of platinum group metals (platinum, palladium, rhodium) which is set to expire at the end of 2013. 
• one year agreement with Tiffany & Co expires end of 2012.
• Supply agreement with Johnson Matthey.
• Year to year agreement with Ford Motor Company.
• No outstanding derivative contracts
• one of only two platinum/palladium companies based in North America (other one is Canadian mining company North American Palladium)

43% of total revenue comes from PGM recycling up from 37% last year.  Avg realized price in 3q2012 was $611/oz down -18.9% from $753 in 3q2011.  3q2012 palladium production:  97,500 ounces down -2.6% from 100,100 ounces in 3q2011.  94,100 ounces came from the Stillwater mine in Montana, down from 96.800 ounces in 2011.  Nine month palladium production:  294k oz -5.5%
% revenue from palladium:  46.9% down from 48.8%.

Lonmin lon:lmi
Fiscal year ends September 30. It's the 3rd largest producer of platinum in the world. All of its mines are located in the Bushveld Complex of South Africa. Production in the three months ended September 30, 2012 was down 45.7% due to a mine strike (-110,000 oz), however refined platinum was down only 20.8% due to stockpile usage.
9 months to Sept 2012: 216,974 oz -10.0%.
% revenue from palladium: 13.1% (15.6%). fiscal 2012
Fiscal year 2012 revenue: $1.614 billion -18.98% ($1.992b),
Total PGM sales: 1383.945 k ounces down -3.6% from 1435.929 koz the year before.

What CNOOC (CEO) Nexen (NXY) Acquisition Means For Oil Sands (China oil companies production reserves offshore)

After months of waiting for the Canadian government to approve it, on December 8, 2012 China's national offshore oil corporation (nyse:ceo) completed a $15.1 billion all cash takeover of Canada's tenth largest oil company Nexen (tsx:nxy).  The deal is the largest foreign investment by any Chinese company ever and will undoubtedly be a confidence booster to Chinese firms looking to buy companies abroad after having been spurned by Unocal Corp in 2005 ($18.5 billion offer rejected) .  In order to get the Canadian government to approve the deal, CNOOC had to make a few concessions:  It agreed to an annual review of its operations, that Nexen Canadian operations employ more Canadian workers than Chinese, CNOOC has also said that it will consider listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange.  The stipulations are not new, the Canadian government has a similar arrangement with Rio Tinto Alcan.

Don't be fooled !  Chinese investment in Nexen doesn't necessarily indicate their interest in the oil sands.  Nexen only accounts for about 6% of oil sands production (including shale, Nexen produces 52 thousand bpd in Canada), in fact the majority of Nexen's production comes from outside of Canada in regions such as the North Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and offshore West Africa (African production down from 18th boe/d last quarter to nothing this quarter).