Investing In Bullion, Make Gold A Priority (silver price, platinum)

                      Though it's true that for much of history the gold to silver ratio was 12, that trend ended more than half a century ago at a time when gold and silver prices were a lot lower than they are today.  In recent history the ratio has been somewhat erratic ranging from a low of just over 30 (April 2011 gold avg $1474, silver avg $42) to a high of 85 in 2008;  During this period there was a lot of downward pressure on both ironically coming from one of its biggest buyers central banks - rising interest rates cause money to flow out of gold and into other sectors of the economy but gold still stood out, maintaining a price at least 75% of its high, silver however presently trades at only 40% of it's 2011 high of $50.

During the last recession the price of platinum fell below the price of gold, an occurrence that usually only happens during crises  - the last time it happened was in the 1970's when the world's main economic drivers, the US and Europe were going through recessionary periods of low growth, high unemployment, high debt levels and oil prices.

The more recent inverse relationship between gold and platinum dominated the period of August 9, 2011 to January 2013.  Prior to that, since 1986 the price of platinum always exceeded gold with the exception of very few brief periods but even then the difference was marginal.  What this means is that the current economic climate is not as rosy as it's made out to be - the factors now driving gold closer to platinum are the same ones that come into play during times of economic uncertainty (central bank buying, inflation leads to lower confidence in the dollar, causing people to jump onto the bullion bandwagon).

Platinum versus Gold

For bullion buyers, the platinum group metals (pt, pd, rh) provide an interesting alternative to gold but a couple other key factors to consider may make gold the safer option.  In 2008 when rhodium hit $10,000 an ounce before hitting rock bottom a year later (2009 average $1500) investors lost interest in the white metal.  In a healthy economy, demand for platinum and palladium will still be there since both rely on industrial (catalytic converters) and high end markets (white gold plating, platinum jewelry);  however, yearly demand in general is not nearly as high as it is for silver or gold;  2012 platinum demand was about 6 million ounces, 7 million ounces for palladium which is only a fraction of the 155.4m ounces of gold, 1.16b ounces of silver consumed.

2012 exit year - Global reserves of platinum group metals total 2.328 billion ounces (2013 Mineral Commodity Summaries: 66m kg, annual production represents 0.6% of this) versus 1.799 billion ounces for gold (annual production represents 5% of this).  This doesn't sit well with me given that production of gold is some eight times greater than all platinum group metals combined.  As an investor what this tells you is that it's a lot easier to raise mine output to either match higher demand /or to put downward pressure on the price, than it is for gold.  At current prices, gold is just as rare as the platinum group metals but demand remains many times greater.  This is precisely why the rhodium crash of 2008 could never happen to gold (rhodium supply increased substantially as miners saw an opportunity to sell at higher prices but it turned out that demand was not nearly as strong as anticipated).  Platinum may be brighter but from an investment perspective gold still outshines it. 

Demand for platinum has a shiny future - light vehicle production is expected to increase by 13.6% over the next three years, with each vehicle needing a catalytic converter containing four grams of platinum and palladium what that amounts to is an additional 1.54 million ounces of pt/pd demanded.

Up and Coming Natural Gas Companies Progress Energy (PRQ) Tourmaline Oil Corp (tse:TOU) Paramount Resources (POU) Intermediate

                  Over the last two years these rapidly growing companies (five billion dollar Tourmaline Oil Corp is only 4 years old !) weathered the steep decline in natural gas prices, which is quite impressive to say the least;  2012 first half revenues at Tourmaline (+32% --> $204 million), Paramount Resources (-6.2% --> $101 million) and Progress Energy (-12% --> $103 million) all stable despite the huge drop in natural gas price realized: Tourmaline -46.2% Paramount -43.2% Progress -33.5%.  What's more, these companies were able to attract the investment (Progress received $1.1 billion from Petronas) necessary to maintain capex spending (-3% Paramount, -22% Tourmaline) at a time when Canada's biggest player, Encana divested $2.2 billion in assets and lowered its 2011 investment plan by -37%. 

Yes, the federal government's ruling against the takeover of Progress Energy by Petronas complicates things for investors;  for many intermediate gas producers cash flow lags capital, making outside cash (investment) essential for asset development to continue, but I wouldn't be too concerned.  Cash flow will experience a natural rise over the coming quarters because natural gas prices are on the way up !  +73% in just the last six months. 

Empire Company LTD (EMP.A) Will Marc Poulin Be Able To Fill Bill McEwan's Shoes As President Of Sobeys ? (Loblaw Companies LTD (L), grocery market competition)

          The February 8, 2012 announcement from Empire Company Limited concerning the retirement of Sobeys CEO Bill McEwan came as no surprise to those already aware of his recent health problems, but that doesn't mean there won't be a difficult transition period. Bill McEwan was instramental in growing the company's business both in its size and market penetration (in just the last two years FreshCo was launched followed by full-service next generation IGA stores in Quebec and Ontario). He oversaw implementation of the company's development growth strategy which thus far has been a success. Sobeys went from being mostly just an Atlantic grocer to one with a Canada-wide reach (881 of its 1337 locations are in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta). It was just after he joined in 2000 that Sobeys parent, Empire Company purchased most of the interest it currenty has in Genstar Development Partnership (real estate, at present Empire owns 40% of Genstar only marginally higher than the 35.7% acquired in January of 2001; Genstar is now a bigger part of the company's real estate business since the divestment of Wajax last year).

Mr. McEwan was also instrumental in getting deals done with Target (will supply the chain with private label food products) and Shell (Sobeys not Empire Company made this deal; acquired 250 of Shell's 1,600 Canadian gas stations. That's in addition to the dozen or so Fast Fuel locations already run by Sobeys Atlantic). In fact even Sobeys private label (Compliments) was launched in the middle of his tenure; The brand now includes a portfolio of five distinct product lines; Balance, Organic, Sensations, Greencare in addition to Compliments, which is vital considering main competitor Loblaw Companies has seen demand for its own Green Leaf organic products surge.

     For a grocery chain that added more than +$200M to operating income, +$6B to sales and pushed parent company Empire's dividends past 80 cents a share, Bill McEwan's generous compensation ($1.9M cash bonus in 2010 in addition to a 3.8% raise) is easy to justify. Only two years prior to making him CEO, Sobeys completed the takover of IGA's parent company the Oshawa Group, in a mega deal that more than doubled sales; That added another dimension to his new job, tasking him with integrating the two companies, does he convert IGA into Sobeys stores or not ? what about Price Choppers? He left the brands intact except for Price Choppers, but that's a different story. Price Chopper locations are gradually being replaced by FreshCo which also markets itself as a discount retailer, meaning they will continue to attract the same type of customers. Sobeys is about half as big as Loblaws (sales) the same as it was back in 2000, but remaining the second largest in what has become an ultra-competitive industry is itself impressive.

His story is remarkable to say the least. He started out bagging groceries at a Ferraro supermarket as a teenager in British Columbia. At around 18, he entered university and began studying Arts before cutting his studies short two years later, opting instead to go back to work at the supermarket. His passion for the food business gave him unique insight as well as put him in contact with the right people and by the 1990's he was a vice-president at A&P in the United States.

Now onto Marc Poilin, who is he ? For starters, he has a masters degree in business (though Bill McEwan did more than alright without one), has 26 years experience in the food retailing business (started out with Provigo - now owned by Loblaws) and 1 year experience as president of a major grocer (IGA).

His job won't be easy; Food price inflation especially for meats (record high and going up) means Sobeys will eventually be forced to raise prices more than customers are accustomed to (2Q2011: Sobeys prices decline -1% even though cost of goods actually went up). Sobeys has not yet raised prices the way it would have liked and that's because of an unprecedented amount of promotional discounting also known as 'disinflation' attributable to intense competition. Not helping the situation is Wal-Mart which now carries more grocery food items than it did a year ago.

Bill McEwan has routinely been awarded top tier industry-level recognition. In 2005 he received the Global Pencil Award. In 2009 supermarketnews named him a top 75 food retailing executive and on April 10, 2012 the Retail Council of Canada gave him the lifetime achievement award (highest award in Canada). The leadership change will become become official on June 29, 2012.

Also of note:

- Empire Company's current president Paul Sobey took over the reigns of the company in 1998, only two years before Bill McEwan joined so it'll be interesting to see if his departure leads to any changes at Empire's board.

- On April 26, 2007 Sobeys and Empire Co officially become one company (Empire) after Sobeys agreed to be bought out for $1.06B (72.1% --> 100%). So until 2006 Sobeys annual report statements were made by itself not part of Empire Company reports.

To those of you who visit my site regularly looking for new posts I apologize for not writing as much lately. I've had a busy couple months and am getting ready to launch a couple new websites. One of them is grocerynews.org (already started but has a lot of work ahead) and the other one I'm working on will be located at techstocks.co (.co not .com). Thanks for visting and appreciate the comments !

Investing In Gold and Silver Physical Gold or Stocks and Which Companies To Look For (production by company)

&nbsp&nbsp When high inflation follows the beginning of a recession, they combine to produce long term stagflation making true hedges against inflation harder to come by due to the compound effect and its impact on currency markets. (high inflation in the world's developing economies is one of the key factors propping up long term gold prices) Currently, a number of the world's major economies find themselves in that situation and that's threatening to destabilize the world economy; Because of the changing face of the world's economy (relatively new sectors like the Quaternary playing a larger, central role), the way people do business and most importantly the much more deeply rooted connections nations have with each other, history can't be used as a guide for people looking for answers. Though risky, during the year, bonds have had the second highest rate of return second only to gold (price of gold up 43.93% or $527.70 (August 9, 2010 - August 9, 2011). The market volatility, inflation and overall economic tightening are errily reminiscent of the 2008 recession, the big problem now though is that the US government has used up most of its arsenal (quantitative easing, stimulus) leaving it highly vulnerable.

What is certain is that when money devalues, commodities like gold, silver and oil don't. Gold and silver have intrinsic value that isn't easily replaced (few substitutes); their properties are valued both economically (industrially) & aesthetically and according to history, are reliable stores of money (gold was used as legal tender even before the first coins, silver use in rfid scanners and tracking devices is one of the sources of demand growth). Also, overall base metal production has been falling, at the same time central banks which used to be net suppliers have become net buyers. Countries like the United States have become increasingly reliant on quantitative easing to stimulate the economy; Quantitative easing has as a direct consequence the devaluation of curency which contributes more to inflationary pressures (if the effects aren't felt immediately they ultimately do later on when the economy heats up).

U.S. deflation is part of the reason quantitative easing is such an attractive option (increasing the money supply lowers interest rates which raises prices through foreign currency markets) however the root of the deflation America is attempting to correct isn't even a result of high interest rates (more recently) or a money supply problem meaning the government may just be creating a new problem. (thetombstonenews: 'Quantitavie Easing') Some interesting facts about gold: 3/4 of all the gold ever extracted from the earth was mined after 1910. South Africa was the largest producer in most years since that time. Switzerland was the last country to tie its currency to the price of gold (1999). Until May 2009, all the gold ever extracted amounted to 5,835,876,025.6 ounces or about 85% of an ounce per person (165,446 tonnes). Gold weighs 19.3 times as much as water, is even more rare than diamonds, never oxidizes (maintains its shine), and in its more natural form is one of the softest metals.

When deciding on Gold ETF's/Gold Stocks consider this : contracts like the precious metals loan device (government/central banks) and those made by NYMEX/COMEX and London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (involves 6 big banks including JP Morgan) are short by a significant margin when it comes to the amount of gold and silver they need to cover those positions. Also, JP Morgan is now owner of a vault license, throwing more uncertainty into the equation as JP Morgan has used unallocated gold and silver to cover contracts. Though riskier, gold stocks also pay dividends annually or quarterly, in 2011 Q2 Barick Gold's African subsidiary doubled its dividend up to 3.2c/share for the quarter alone. or consider Palladium investing

Investing In Gold and Silver Physical Gold or Stocks and Which Companies To Look For (production by company)

When high inflation follows the beginning of a recession, they combine to produce long term stagflation making true hedges against inflation harder to come by due to the compound effect and its impact on currency markets. Currently, a number of the world's major economies find themselves in that situation and that's threatening to destabilize the world economy; Because of the changing face of the world's economy (relatively new sectors like the Quaternary playing a larger, central role), the way people do business and most importantly the much more deeply rooted connections nations have with each other, history can't be used as a guide for people looking for answers. Though risky, during the year, bonds have had the second highest rate of return second only to gold (price of gold up 43.93% or $527.70 (August 9, 2010 - August 9, 2011). The market volatility, inflation and overall economic tightening are errily reminiscent of the 2008 recession, the big problem now though is that the US government has used up most of its arsenal (quantitative easing, stimulus) leaving it highly vulnerable.

What is certain is that when money devalues, commodities like gold, silver and oil don't. Gold and silver have intrinsic value that isn't easily replaced (few substitutes); their properties are valued both economically (industrially) & aesthetically and according to history, are reliable stores of money (gold was used as legal tender even before the first coins, silver use in rfid scanners and tracking devices is one of the sources of demand growth). Also, overall base metal production has been falling, at the same time central banks which used to be net suppliers have become net buyers. Countries like the United States have become increasingly reliant on quantitative easing to stimulate the economy; Quantitative easing has as a direct consequence the devaluation of curency which contributes more to inflationary pressures (if the effects aren't felt immediately they ultimately do later on when the economy heats up). U.S. deflation is part of the reason quantitative easing is such an attractive option (increasing the money supply lowers interest rates which raises prices through foreign currency markets) however the root of the deflation America is attempting to correct isn't even a result of high interest rates (more recently) or a money supply problem meaning the government may just be creating a new problem. (thetombstonenews: 'Quantitavie Easing') Some interesting facts about gold: 3/4 of all the gold ever extracted from the earth was mined after 1910. South Africa was the largest producer in most years since that time. Switzerland was the last country to tie its currency to the price of gold (1999). Until May 2009, all the gold ever extracted amounted to 5,835,876,025.6 ounces or about 85% of an ounce per person (165,446 tonnes). Gold weighs 19.3 times as much as water, is even more rare than diamonds, never oxidizes (maintains its shine), and in its more natural form is one of the softest metals.

When deciding on Gold ETF's/Gold Stocks consider this : contracts like the precious metals loan device (government/central banks) and those made by NYMEX/COMEX and London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (involves 6 big banks including JP Morgan) are short by a significant margin when it comes to the amount of gold and silver they need to cover those positions. Also, JP Morgan is now owner of a vault license, throwing more uncertainty into the equation as JP Morgan has used unallocated gold and silver to cover contracts. Though riskier, gold stocks also pay dividends annually or quarterly, in 2011 Q2 Barick Gold's African subsidiary doubled its dividend up to 3.2c/share for the quarter alone.

Also consider that the rise and fall of stocks isn't entirely determined by commodity prices. Other factors such as the enterprise value (see Yamana Gold blog entry), free cash flow (cash flow minus capital expenditure) and most importantly total cash cost per ounce (the main reason Canadian companies like Goldcorp and Eldorado Gold make it to the top in terms of market value while others like AngloGold and Gold Fields which produce and own a lot more than their counterparts, aren't ranked significantly higher) tend to have more of an effect on prices. There are many examples of gold companies that have a market value close to what it was 2 years ago despite commodity prices being many times higher; there was less than a 30% difference in market value for Agnico-Eagle Mines, Yamana Gold, Gold Fields, Kinross Gold (not considering the Red Back acquisition its capitalization was actually steady) while others like First Majestic Silver realized the change in price (was worth US $215 million in 2008 ten times less than in 2010 despite only producing 1.89 times less silver). Also, consider this: For most of 2008 when gold prices started their overall upward trend, it was the large cap companies that outperformed the small cap; the opposite was true in the summer of 2011 when gold prices broke through new levels, the change in behavior might simply be the result of a much higher support level for gold prices making high production costs less of an issue for startup companies (many more juniors entered the market in 2011 than in 2008). Physical gold and physical silver remains the safest investment option as there is less risk (no concerns regarding delivery of the asset) and the investor gets to realize 90-100% of the rise in gold and silver prices (on demand price paid by bullion dealers at coins stores for the metal). What the physical gold investor loses out on are dividends paid out by gold mining stocks. A major factor affecting spot prices, which is unrelated to stocks are margin calls. For example in early August of 2011 (when there was a lot of economic uncertainty) gold and silver spot prices declined at the same time major stock indices fell by their largest margins since the 2008 recession, the commodities selloff was sparked by a margin call (temporary selloff due to traders being required to meet call options). Recently, South Korea, Thailand and even debt-laden Greece added more gold to their reserves. (Gold Cartel losing, price to top $3000) On August 8, 2011 when stocks performed poorly, gold spiked again (gold is the first thing central banks/banks/investors hoard when they want a stable investment medium, also when banks realize they might have to fulfill their significant short positions) but don't be concerned about the more gradual silver rise (historically, silver has lagged gold (time) when increases occur; the reason is that banks and large investors tend to wait until gold gets too expensive before buying the white metal); also when gold gets too expensive jewelers, industrials turn to alternatives and silver is one of them. Also consider the gold/silver ratio which is 44 (August 8, 2011), much higher than the historic ratio of under 20. Silver has, in just 5 years gone from $14/oz to a support level of between $34 and $40 per ounce.

Goldcorp (GG), the lowest cost per ounce producer of gold among tier 1 companies. In 2010 it produced 23 million ounces of silver giving it the distinction of leading producer of silver among gold companies that year, though production was still only about half of BHP Billiton's (46.6 million ounces) it was high enough to rank 4th among all companies, ranking just behind Pan American Silver (24.3 million ounces). What's more, 77% of Goldcorp's 2P silver reserves (1.0 of 1.3 billion ounces) are at Penasquito, Mexico, a property that hasn't even reached commercial production yet.

First Majestic Silver (FR) has significant resources that don't show up as reserves because of their status, has one of the lowest cash costs industry-wide, nearly doubled silver production in 2010 and mints its own bullion bars and rounds (unlike many of its competitors like Pan American Silver which produce and market bullion through other companies (Northwest Territorial Mint for example).

Silver Standard Resources (SSRI) is another to keep watch of. The company is already a major producer and that's with only 1 of its 4 properties producing. Cash costs are still high because many new mines have high initial production, initial construction and other development costs.

Hecla Mining Company - The gold to silver ratio remains high (about 43 compared to 35 on May 3, 2011 (Silver 44, Gold 1540)) but is starting to come down; August 19-22 gold was up about 5.5% but silver was up more than 9%). Hecla Mining, like many other silver miners, has suffered from volatile prices since silver recorded a high of about $49/oz on April 29, 2011 however with gold about 20% higher than it was at that time and silver 10% lower, silver should eventually break through into the $50 level again. Hecla Mining has high growth potential relative to other silver miners because its fall over the last couple months has been more pronounced (as of Monday morning Aug 22; -33% last 6 months, -11.6% last 3 months, -13% last month compared to Coeur d'Alene (-6.7%, +.24%, -8% respectively) and Silver Standard Resources (-3%, -9%, -12.6% respectively); during that period First Majestic released reports confirming growth in production and earnings in 2010 and 2011 (71.8% rise in silver production in 2010 with cash costs among the lowest industry-wide (near $7/oz) compared to $12/oz for Pan American Silver (largest pure-play silver producer). Hecla also has low net cash costs realized (-$1/oz in 2010).

Primary silver producers (2010)

Fresnillo (38.6 million), Pan American Silver (24.3 million), Silver Wheaton (23.865 million up 37%) Coeur d'Alene Mines (16.8 million), Hecla Mining (10.566 million down 3.8%), First Majestic Silver (6.56 million up 72%), Silver Standard Resources (6.302 million up 48%) and Silvercorp Metals (4.624 million up 10%). (individual company notices)