Reasons to Buy Gold and Silver in 2015: US Dollar, Currency Wars, Russian Reserves, Central Bank QE

Gold and Silver Market Ripe For Rapid Growth

Though stateside gold prices may appear docile, from a foreigner's perspective precious metal prices are already too high because in much of the rest of the world the key precious metals have become a lot more expensive to purchase thanks to currency wars : the mighty US dollar.

Seventy-five percent of silver production (mine production) happens at gold mines - this means that, when gold production slows down (companies shuttering mines which started happening in the middle of last year) silver output declines.  This keeps the gold silver ratio intact despite the delinking of the two metals at London's commodities bourse.

The core price is set by comex, the commodities exchange in NYC and thus is traded in USD.
The fact that the price of both pcm's has barely increased over the past six months in my opinion makes both ripe for the picking ! 
Elsewhere the strong US dollar is making gold increasingly harder to afford, but that's inflation spurred by changes in local currency rates;  though quantitative easing and changes in interest rates are wreaking havoc on other currencies, the USD already has that factored into its value.. with The Fed at its side nothing aside from a shaking of the Fed's basic policy of money creation can shake its value... or of course a tiring by currency traders of the endless excuses for more QE.

In my opinion however, gold should've gained much more than nothing in US dollar terms.  Demand is still rising especially among those seeking a tangible hedge against inflation, as well as by those transferring money out of equities in response to growing global economic uncertainty, a shrinking middle class. 

The Gold Supply Problem

Now there's also the inevitable gold supply problem : let's face it, prices crashed last year - and the big producers responded by shuttering mines, big mines that weren't producing at reasonable cash costs.  Restarting those mines doesn't happen overnight - it can take years to complete new shaft reconstruction, bring in the necessary capital investment funding, and in some cases may even involve reapplying for licenses and approvals.  The big gold companies are now worth a lot less making it increasingly difficult for them to get banks to lend them the billions of dollars needed to make the mines work.  Then of course there's the shareholders who need to be convinced that the metal prices won't collapse again.

As of 2014 there is an estimated 24 billion ounces of silver existing in the form of jewelry.  Total historic production of silver is about 52 billion ounces, eighty percent of that mined since the dawn of the twentieth century.  However, much of the 52b oz will never be available to the bullion market due to its historical value (in the form of religious items, museum pieces, non-scrap jewelry).

India Imports Record Amount Of Gold From Switzerland

According to data from November 2014 Indian imports of gold from Switzerland totaled CHF2.9 billion up a whopping 600% versus the previous year; it's not just that month either, in October it was up 280%; January through November gold imports amounted to 457 kilos.

Russia Continues To Add To Gold Reserves
Russia purchased 20.73 tonnes of bullion in December - note also that in December gold prices were up for the first time in five months (+1%).  Makes Russian reserves fifth largest at 1210 tonnes.
Also notable - Ukraine held onto its reserves after selling 16 of 40 tonnes in Oct/Nov. 

Then there's the other central banks who cumulatively only became net buyers of gold since 2010 after 20 years of being net sellers.

Russia is key here - July through September 2014 it accounted for 59% of the 92.8t of net gold purchases by central banks.  Gold comprises just under 11% of Russian reserves up from 8% in 2013.  Those purchases allowed it to leapfrog China (1150 vs 1054).
Gold imports from HK by China were down last year but it was still the second highest on record at 813 tonnes.  Demand for gold should continue to increase into February as a result of Chinese new year festivities.

Don't Bet Against The Canadian Dollar !

I don't consider the current CDN/USD fxrate to be sustainable -  Beginning in 2016 oil prices are forecast to go up possibly by as much as 50% ($45->$65 per barrel).  Also note that Canada's federal government is starting to run a balanced budget while the USA has a severe, structural deficit which ultimately will lead the United States into a situation where it will be forced to run up high payments to foreign bondholders further weakening its long term outlook.

Don't Let Yesterday's Gold Selloff Turn You Off

- gold responds positively to durable goods numbers
- most global currencies are either under pressure (canada, australia, euro) or being deflated (asia) - this strengthens the US dollar in the near term but makes it increasingly vulnerable over the long term
- when the dollar shows any sign of weakness expect a big jump in precious metal prices
- Greek debt bailout 80 out of 240 billion is owed to Germany - If Greece doesn't pay up Germany will undoubtedly rethink its financial obligations to the Eurozone and that weakens Europe, its central bank and its structure.

Since 2001 The Price of Gold Is Up 600% linked To Central Bank Purchases & Investment Related Demand, overall Net Hedging by Mining Companies Up Only Twice in Last Five Years (quarterly)

   Since April 10, 2001 when the price of gold hit a low of about $256/oz it has been steadily increasing on the back of higher investment related demand (represented 37% of total demand in 2010 up from just 4% in 2000), higher overall demand (3,812.2 tonnes 9% higher than 2009), and greater interest shown in the yellow metal by Asia (China's demand for bars and coins accounted for 13.5% of all gold demand by value, that's up 70% in just one year). (World Gold Council) Jewelry accounts for roughly 50% of gold demand down from 85% in 2000 but up from 43% in 2009. In the first quarter of 2011 Chinese demand for gold (25% of all gold demand) exceeded demand from Indians (23% of global gold demand) who were previous to that the largest consumers of gold (90.9 metric tons compared to India's 85.6 metric tons, China's represented a doubling over the previous year) (China Is Now Top Gold Bug); In 2010 consumer demand in India led all countries, it accounted for 25% (963.1 tonnes) of all global demand for gold, that's up from 16.6% the year before. In other countries like Greece, economic turmoil is causing demand for bullion to spike. (Financial Times: Greek savers rush for gold)

China: If, as many suggest, the People's Republic of China lets the RMB increase in value relative to the USD, that will weaken demand for gold in the short term as investors see the new exchange rate as a sign of economic stability but in the long run, the stronger RMB will increase Chinese demand for Gold due to its greater purchasing power. Also, a stronger RMB will raise Chinese import demand, indirectly propping up gold demand abroad too.

Because of weakened global reserve currencies (euro/usd) and a low portion of portfolios (1% but begining to show growth) and central bank reserves in gold (central banks sold much of their holdings in the early 2000's/since 2009 they have become net buyers) gold prices are in the midst of a long term upward trend. (Pierre Lassonde, Franco-Nevada) In 2009 central banks held 17.5% of all gold estimated to exist above ground (940M out of 5.5B ounces). As recently as 2005 central banks gold selling contributed as much as 14% of the gold supply. (Seeking Alpha: Gold Soars on Falling Supply and Rising Demand) In early to mid 2011, the central banks of Mexico (99.1 tonnes), Russia (41.8 tonnes), South Korea (25 tonnes) and Thailand (just over 9 tonnes) were among the largest buyers of physical gold. As of 2011 the world's largest exchange traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares ranks 6th among all entities in terms of its gold reserves, it owns 1213.9M tonnes of gold which is 4.5% more than China (1161.6M), 30.96% more than Russia (926.9M) and 97.5% more than India (614.6M). SPDR has just over half of all the gold held by gold etf's. (cnbc: The World's Biggest Gold Reserves)

While gold demand is rising from all areas (consumer, jewelry, central banks, industry: total up 9%) total supply is not (up only 2% in 2010) and that's putting even more pressure on the price. (http://www.gold.org/download/pub_archive/pdf/GDT_Q4_2010.pdf) Output from gold mining makes up about 60% of the supply (gold output from mining declined in the seven years leading up to 2008). Another reason to expect higher prices; Companies are closing their hedge books (Barrick Gold led the charge in 2009 it cost them $5.6B, AngloGold Ashanti in October 2010 after it raised $1.58B to close it, Kinross Gold removed 90,000 ounces hedged in the first quarter of 2011 however it was the only major company to do that in 2011). Total gold hedged by miners amounts to 4.88 million ounces (1Q 2011); The first quarter of 2011 was just the second of 21 quarters since 2006 to show any increase in net hedging. (Gold miners hedge in Q1, big sales unlikely: report) Also to consider, the ceo's of Newmont Mining and AngloGold Ashanti the second and third biggest gold producing companies, predict that gold will exceed $2,200 an ounce by 2012. (reuters: Mining CEOs expect gold prices to keep rising)

If, as Franco-Nevada suggests, Asian central banks increase their minimum weighting in gold to 15% another 17,000 tonnes would be added to demand over the next few years. Gold ETF's could hoard more gold too with interest in physical gold higher than at any point in their history (in the USA they only date back to November 18, 2004, StreetTracks Gold Trust exchange-traded fund but since then they accounted for 2,300 tonnes of net demand). Gold companies for the most part have wide profit margins making them popular among both institutional investors and others.