Showing posts with label quarterly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label quarterly. Show all posts

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Possible US Energy Crisis Looming ? (oil, distillate inventories, oil company production, Exxon Mobil XOM)


    In 2012 57 coal generators representing 2.8% of America's coal fired energy capacity will be shut down with another 118 shutdowns slated for retirement in the years to come. In November 2011 coal's contribution to energy generation dipped below 40% for the first time since the 1970's. A big reason for the shutdowns is the costs associated with making them more eco-friendly (costly carbon emission credits in addition to new federal laws requiring that all be fitted with new emission reducing technology such as nitrogen scrubers). In California, coal utility plants face even more obstacles; Some of the newest energy laws in California literally make it impossible for utility companies to continue using coal to generate electricity by disallowing the renewing of contracts (Edison International is one of many victims).
Keep in mind that all this is happening despite the fact that the United States is home to 28% of the world's coal reserves and that China is building dozens of new plants each year.

Note: In the March 2012 quarter, US carbon emissions were at a 20-year low of 1.340 billion metric tonnes. Coal-sourced carbon emissions dipped below 400 million metric tons for the first time since the mid 1980's (387 Mt down -18%).

Petroleum - Oil - Natural Gas



On August 1, 2012 the US Energy Administration reported that oil stockpiles were down on the week by the largest margin in over half a year; US stockpiles of crude oil fell -6.5M barrels to 373.6M barrels (however vs this time last year crude oil stockpiles are up +18.6M barrels). More disturbing though is the long term downward trend in US stockpiles of distillate (usable gas for fuel); Distillate stockpiles are 28 million barrels lower than they were at this time last year (152.3M --> 124.3M) after declining by another million barrels last week (week to week, finishing at 124.3M barrels).

The US still imports almost 45% of the oil it consumes and its domestic reserves rank next to China's (19 billion vs 14 billion barrels) so maybe it's time American oil companies do what Chinese companies are already doing, which is acquire foreign assets ! (CNOOC takeover of Nexen, Talisman sells $1.5B worth of assets in the UK). Note: Nexen's proved oil reserves are similar to Anadarko's (2-2.5 billion boe).

According to the EIA on July 30, 2012 American gas pump prices were lowest in the Gulf Coast ($3.31 per gallon) and highest on the West Coast ($3.71 per gallon).
June 2012 breakdown of US gas price: taxes 12%, distribution and marketing 14%, refining 12%, crude oil 62%.
Regular gasoline average price: $3.54/gallon, diesel $3.76/gallon; US gas prices today are about 50c/gallon lower vs the 6-month high.

Oil Companies

Companies are looking for oil in new places: Anadarko Petroleum is beginning exploratory drilling in New Zealand in 2014. Corridor Resources wants to set up a deep water oil well in the Gulf of St Lawrence (being considered July 2012) but that project is facing a lot of opposition.

As shown in the graph, America's 3 biggest oil companies are producing less while the relatively smaller companies are the ones adding to output. Furthermore, Anadarko Petroleum, considered by many to be the fourth largest US-based oil company, is suffering from assets writedowns (could cause the company to devalue which would make it a takeover target, bad news considering US companies need to be more aggresive with regards to foreign takeovers).

Quarter ended June 2012

Of the six regions that Exxon operates in only the Canada/South America region showed an increase in oil liquids production (240 --> 243 th boe/d). Exxon gets 37.6% of its natural gas output from Asia (ahead of the USA at 33.4%).

Occidental Petroleum net income down -27%
El Paso Corp: avg realized sales price up +18.0% for oil/condensate ($86.27 --> $101.81) but down 28.6% for natural gas ($4.06 --> $2.90) and down -18.7% for ngl's ($50.37 --> $40.96).
Anadarko reported a -$380M loss on $978M in writedowns of its coalbed-methane natural gas assets. Anadarko has interests in some of America's biggest shale resource plays including Marcellus and Eagle Ford but the writedown concerns other properties in Wyoming's Powder River Basin.

Unstable Natural Gas Prices Lead Companies To Abandon Shale Projects --> US Reserves Of Shale Go Down

Monday, July 2, 2012

Sobeys (EMP.A) Did Well in 2012 Even Compared Loblaw Companies LTD (L), Metro Inc (MRU.A)

Empire Company Ltd (tsx:EMP.A) is the parent of Sobeys Stores Limited, the food retailing unit which contributes 99.0% of revenue to the Empire Group (up from 98.3% in 2011 due to the divestment of Wajax property business but that will change next year due to the inclusion of 236 more gas stations as part of operations). Empire Company is still looking like a solid investment (ebitda margin grew the most out of the three companies however it's still in 3rd place at 5.5%).

It upped its dividend payout to 24 cents a share from 22.5 cents which represents an impressive +6.7% jump (had been 20c for a number of quarters prior to that). That beats Loblaw companies LTD last quarterly dividend payout of 21 cents a share back on April 30, 2012 (no growth quarter on quarter) and 21.5c at Metro Inc (up 12.0% from 19.2c which is a nice return). Metro had no problem hiking dividends, with earnings per share up +12 cents (82-->94c) compared to +14 cents at Empire Company (121-->135c) and -13 cents cents at Loblaw Companies Ltd (58-->45c).

Same store sales: Metro 2Q12 (March 2012) +1.0%; Loblaw Companies (march 24, 2012) -0.7%, Empire Company (June 2012) +0.7%


Although sales were down slightly in the last quarter of 2012 (-1.8%), after accounting for the period length being 1 week shorter empire's total sales were actually up +3.0% or $474.9 million (fiscal 2012 only 52 weeks vs 53 weeks in fiscal 2011). Sales were also +3.0% higher for the year after accounting for 2011's extra week & the impact on sales resulting from acquisitions & divestments of convenience stores/gas stations (sales difference between 2011 and 2012 goes from $290m --> $474.9m). Empire Company's EBITDA (unadjusted) ended 2012 on a strong note, up +$14.4m over last year's quarter compared to only +$13.6m for the entire fiscal year (meaning it actually contracted over the previous three quarters). In 4q12 only $10m ($35.3m for the year) in profit came from investments and other operations up from $6.5m in 2011. In the thid quarter, Sobeys food business contributed $3.94 billion to revenue (out of Empire's $3.98b) while in the fourth quarter it was $4.02 billion (out of Empire's $4.07b) which is about 99.0%. In terms of profit, Sobeys was the source of only 89.54% of Emipre's over the last two quarters.
Ebitda margin for last quarter; Metro Inc still leads the industry at 6.9% (up from 6.7%), Loblaws is still in second place at 5.9% (down from 6.6%); Empire Company, though last went up more than the other two: 5.5% (up from 5.06%).


Business at Empire Theatres appears to be strong with revenue from Empire's non food business up +7.2% to $50.6m (from $47.2m); Most of the revenue in that category comes from cinema operations. For fiscal 2012, that revenue reached $204.5m up from $200.5m.
$10M in ebitda gains in fiscal 2012 are attributed to 'dilution gains' from a change in ownership level of Crombie Reit. Normally it's $74.8m (vs $69.4m) but that changes to $64.6m (vs $62.6m) after removing items not considered part of underlying business.
Funded debt fell -$21.6m to just over $1.1 billion (1.3xebitda). Funded debt/total capital fell -1.7 basis points to 25.0%.

Market Share
If we base the market share each has in Canada's food retailing industry on the food revenue of each company during the last two quarters, we can assume Sobeys is at 23% if we believe Galen Weston Sr (Loblaw Companies) when he puts his company's share at 40% (Sobeys sales last six months $7.9632 billion vs Loblaws $14.034 billion last two reported quarters ending March 24). It follows that Metro Inc has 15% of the market (all of its revenue comes from food).

More information about the grocery industry can be found at another website I launched recently at www.grocerynews.org