Gold Looks Good In 2014 Despite Fed Tapering, Canadian Oil Price Differential Under $20 Into 2016 pipelines

Key things to note this first month of 2014:  From December 31, 2013 to January 29, 2014 spot gold gained US$85 to close at just under $1270 but keep in mind that if your currency isn't the US dollar then gold got even more expensive thanks to i) ongoing currency crises in emerging markets ii) Canadian dollar drops to 4-year low versus the greenback; country decides not to raise interest rates. iii) fiscal liquidity problem developing in China.  But don't get too excited just yet - At $1255 the April futures gold price remains lower than spot.  Osisko is suing Goldcorp - alleges misuse of confidential information.  I guess that puts an end to Goldcorp's $2.6 billion hostile bid for Osisko.

Canadian WCS oil price:  Canadian oil price differential expected to remain under $20 for the foreseeable future, well into 2016.  A couple reasons for this

• Enbridge is expanding the capacity of a key pipeline in Wisconsin:  from 400,000 bpd to 1.2 million bpd.  That will have a positive effect on the oil and gas industry in the US NW (three-fifths of oil output in ND is shipped by rail).  Enbridge has also proposed the Sandpiper Pipeline which will add 225,000 bpd to Minnesotia plus another 375,000 bpd to Wisconsin.
• BP and Marathon refineries in the US are being upgraded to handle more heavy crude from Alberta.
•  Glut of supply in Wisconsin may be relieved when portions of the Keystone pipeline come online (southern leg of Keystone running through Cushing, Oklahoma became operational January 22).
• Trans Mountain pipeline from Edmonton to Burnaby tripled capacity from 300th to 890th barrels per day.

Despite several factors working in its favor, over the last few weeks the price of gold hasn't really moved in either direction, as investors were anticipating a tapering to the Fed's $80 billion monthly bond buying program (put downward pressure on commodity prices).  When it finally happened on January 29 ($10b/mo) gold went up as is to be expected (no more tapering in the short term).  I have some concerns about Fed tapering.. The Fed claims that economic activity picked up in recent months -> this should cause money to flow out of commodities and into equities... however that doesn't appear to be happening (soft jobs growth in December).  If you're concerned about interest rates rising in response to Fed tapering don't be:  The Fed has explicitly stated that it will maintain a policy of record low interest rates (gold does well when interest rates go down).

Counteracting this and lifting the price of gold is

• Currency crisis in emerging markets specifically Turkey, South Africa, Argentina - safe haven investing favors gold, US security notes
• Financial liquidity problem developing in China; banks aren't lending and that's making it worse
• Less US monetary stimulus is wreaking havoc on currencies in South Africa and Turkey where account deficit problems are forcing interest rate hikes.

Air Canada (AC.B) Profitable ? Revenue Up At Chinese Banks, Earnings Dividends At Citigroup, HSBC

Air Canada (AC.B) is making more revenue per passenger and that's one of the reasons investors continue to reward this airline stock with record growth (+52% last month, +150% last 3-months).  In fact just yesterday, the stock touched a five year high of $5.80 up from $1.80 exactly one year ago (Oct. 30).  The company has had success charging passengers additional fees for meals, pillows, earphones and other conveniences previously taken for granted.  Also giving the company lift is its own new discount carrier Air Canada Rouge launched in July 2013.
For the first time in a long time, earnings are showing signs of breaking into positive territory !  Quarterly net loss now at $(23) million, down considerably from $(160) million last year.  Passenger revenue is up (+$86m for 2q13, +$89m 1h13),  First half operating profit was $174m up 176% from last year's $63m.

Lower fuel costs (-$57m quarter, -$76m half) not the main reason quarterly operating expenses are down (1.4)% (total increase in salaries + currency effects were +$60m)  : this proves that the company is getting its act together ! 

Despite currency effects weighing on results [1h13 $(114m) vs +$26m] and wages/salaries up bigtime (+9% quarter, +7% half), overall operating expenses declined (-1.4% quarter, -0.6% half).  Also a positive sign: cash equivalents up 4.8% to $790m after declining (6.6)% in the second half of last year.  Long term debt was lowered by $315m (half) vs $238m last year. 

Airline Stock October 30 2013	1-year	3-months	1-month
Air Canada (AC.B)	209%	150%	52%
Westjet (WGA)	54%	34%	8%

Air Canada benefits from more international travel particularly to and from China;  The last two census results show Canada's Chinese population is up 141,070 or +10.5% in five years; in 2010 Canada acquired Approved Destination Status which is key since it was one of the last major countries not to have it.  At the time, it was estimated that by 2014 Chinese travel to Canada would increase 50%.  Direct competitor Westjet (WGA) has also been reaping the benefits of increased air travel within Canada and to and from the country.  First half revenue up +6.5% ($1,810.93 million), earnings up +22.6% ($135.8m).

Among The World's Largest Banks China's Phenomenal Revenue Growth;  Earnings Dividends At Citigroup, HSBC Remain Healthy

• TD Bank reported 18% growth in average loans (3q2013). 
• JPMorgan Chase - 3rd quarter earnings take a hit :  down -$380m due to - $9.15 billion pretax expense; $7.20 billion after-tax (eps down 185c) for legal expense in Corporate, including reserves for litigation and regulatory proceeding. - $1.60 billion pretax benefit; $992 million after-tax (eps up 26c) from lower reserves in Consumer & Community. 
• China Construction Bank - lending fee incomes climbed contributing to increased revenue.  earnings increases lagged analyst expectations of CNY57.69 billion.

 

Canadian Retailer Hudson's Bay Becomes Major Player In North America's Fashion Retail Industry

Just yesterday HBC's $2.9 billion takeover deal for Saks Inc received Saks shareholder approval.  The Toronto-based company will operate 320 stores in prime retail locations throughout North America.  After the merger, Hudson's Bay Company will have annual sales in excess of $7 billion.  Investors take note:  HBC growth plans for the company are synonymous with increasing shareholder value.