Friday, October 14, 2011

Growth in Oil Supply is Lagging Demand, Refineries open in China in response to demand growth (Tianjin), Russia aims to diversify away from oil after World Bank Issues warning

   There are varying viewpoints regarding the state of supply and demand over the next 10-15 years. On one side are those who think massive shortages are inevitable, many of whom subscribe to the peak oil theory. In 2010 the US military warned of massive shortages in supply as early as 2015 with the annual shortfall reaching 10M bbls/d. Another research report released in 2009 by Merryl Lynch stated that by 2015 the world will need to replace an amount of oil output equivalent to Saudi Arabia's production, every two years (decline in oil production leading up to 2015 could be as much as 30M barrels/d).
On the other side are those who see shrinking demand and lower prices (In September 2011 the world bank warned Russia that its economic growth was too dependent on oil demand/oil prices; Russia has to be concerned by the sub $90 oil price and the 2011 forecast made in September by the US Energy Agency which cut its 2011 global demand growth outlook (demand still increases but not by as much). Update (Nov. 24): Opec price forecast changed to $85-95/bbl up from $75-85/bbl previously (notable since $100 is the price at which the majority of producers hedge).  Goldman Sachs expects oil to reach $140/bbl by the end of 2012.  The volatile situation in the arab world (Iran) and Middle East region (Syria, Tunisia, Egypt) has the west concerned that supply from major exporters could come to a hault, consequently putting a lot of positive pressure on oil/gas prices. Unlike Europe, the US doesn't import oil from Syria so inconsistant output there has less of an impact on the US.  Europe's oil embargo on Iran will have consequences for both Europe and Iran: 1st quarter of 2011 Iran was the source of 4.39% of oil imports ranking eighth overall after Russia, Norway, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and Azerbaijan.  Iran imports 45% of its food, 60% of gdp comes from oil.

For the past 10 years, total supply each year has roughly equaled total demand (1995: 70.1 demanded/70.7 mbpd supplied, 2009: 84.7 demanded/85.0 supplied) but that could change as early as 2012. Also of note, even though retail prices for gas are much higher in Europe and Japan than the United States, industry margins aren't; In Japan, France and Germany consumers actually pay more in tax than they do for the crude itself (June 2008: taxes accounted for the following proportion of pump prices Canada 24%, USA 9.6%, Japan 34.7%, Spain 45.4%, UK 57%, Germany 59%. (International Energy Agency) (In Canada, an increase of C$1 in the price of a barrel of crude oil raises pump prices by about 0.63 cents/liter with only 0.03 cents of that due to the GST tax. (March 2010: National Energy Board of Canada-Gasoline Pricing-Energy Facts) Though oil may seem cheap today ($84.51/bbl after hitting $110 in April 2011) $80 still higher than its 2010 average of $79.45 ($61.92 in 2009). November 16, 2011: crude oil suprasses $100/bbl, the last time it passed that barrier was February 2011 and it stayed there for months before tumbling back down (before that it hadn't reached the level since October 2008); the reason being given for its current swing back up is tensions with Iran, the world's 4th largest producer. In 2011 the highest oil futures reached was $120/bbl which happened at the beginning of the year in January. Biofuels production isn't expected to grow significantly until the 3Q of 2012 when it is forecast to rise to 2.4M bbls/d (up 20% quarter to quarter). Though North America accounts for less than 15% of the world's oil supply, 2,109 of the world's 4,044 active oil rigs are stationed there.

Update January 25, 2011 The International Energy Agency made a couple of surprising announcements. It says oil prices will rise to $146/barrel by 2035 as China, India and the Middle East consume more energy. It also forecasts that U.S. production will increase 22% between now and 2020 to 6.7M bpd from 5.5M bpd (crude only, natural gas not included), allowing the country to rely less on imports. The U.S. will become a net exporter of natural gas by 2021. The bad news for the U.S.? Shale natural gas recoverable reserves in Marcellus, a vast area covering land from New York and Tennessee, was revised down from 410 million cubic feet to 141 million cubic feet. US production of natural gas is presently around 2.3M boe per day.

In January of 2009 the 12 member oil pact known as opec began implementing a plan that calls for 4.2M b/d in cuts to crude output even though key member Saudi Arabia wasn't in full agreement (defied opec and raised production to 9.8M bpd in July 2011; 1.1M bpd increase since the outbreak of war in Libya) ; as well, Algeria is over its opec production quota and is pressing for increases but Algeria probably isn't too concerned given that a lot of its output is in natural gas liquids, a petro component that's already exempt from quotas. OPEC's crude oil production fell to 30.15M bbls/d in September 2011. (Platts Survey: OPEC Crude Output Drops to 30M bpd); Annual crude output (opec) averaged 31.6m bpd as recently as 2008 (total supply including ngl's was 36.2m vs about 35m in 2010, rise of 0.8M in ngl's made up for some of the drop in crude). Crude production isn't the same as oil supply (oil supply also takes into account non-oil additives like ethane/ethanol, pentane, propane, butane as well as field condensates). According to the most recent data 2011 oil demand should increase by about 1.6% and average 88.2 million bpd over the year (in September it was at 88.7 mbpd). Production from Iraq could more than double by 2016 (4.1 mbpd compared to 1.5 mbpd in 2010).

In OPEC's 2010 annual report, Venezuela's proven oil reserves were given as 296.5 billion barrels (40.4% larger than in 2009, or roughly the same as Iraq and Iran combined) surpassing Saudi Arabia (264.5B barrels) however outside opec many dispute the estimates citing concerns regarding the economic viability of Venezuela's oil since a lot of has to be extracted by unconventional means (Venezuela's output is only about a quarter of Saudi Arabia's). The recent war in Libya has put a hault to oil production there but production is slowly coming back online with 1M bbls/d likely within six months and full recovery in 15 months (in 2009 Libya produced 2% of the world's crude and 0.5% of its natural gas). (OPEC oil output will fall as Libya recovers -SecGen) Saudi Arabia produced 9.606M bpd in June and 9.76M bbls/d in August (down from 10.5M in 2010) while Kuwait was at 2.6 mbpd in July (up from 2.45 mbpd in 2010). About $16-20 of oil prices (ranged from 80-95/bbl last couple months) is attributable to risk uncertainty in certain countries (Libya, Nigeria, Iran). The world is becoming less reliant on OPEC for oil (opec production down to around 30M bbls/d in 2011 from 33.3M bbls/d in 2009) however if as the US Energy Agency expects, non opec countries fail to meet consumption increases 5-10 years from now, production from opec could rise as more pressure is put on it to meet the extra demand. OPEC exports of natural gas were up 27.6% in 2010 (21% share globally) with some of the biggest increases coming from Qatar (gas production up over 70% since 2006 (109.335 vs 64.2 bil m3). Qatar was also the main source of Exxon Mobil's 10% increase in 2011 first half oil equivalent production. Graph: 2011 and 2012 uses data updated (Sept/Oct '11) from the US Energy Agency not IEA whose data is shown in the third table).

Graph shows production only for selected companies, other major companies such as Reliance Industries, Lukoil, Sinopec are not included).
In June 2011 Paris based IEA (agency) pegged 2016 consumption at 95.3 million bbls/d with 41% of the increase after 2010 (3 out of 7.3 million bpd) tied to China. That puts annual growth in demand between 2011 and 2016 @ 1.3% or 1.2M bbls/d (up from 0.5 mbpd previously forecasted by the agency). Oil production capacity will rise to over 100 mbpd from 93.8 mbpd in 2010. With demand that high, opec's plan to lower crude output to under 30M barrels seems unrealistic (opec thinks that lowering supply is the only way to keep oil prices at prices above $80-85/bbl, a price it's comfortable with). A lot of the world's new production will also come from Iraq (4.1m bbls/d up from 1.5 in 2010). Canadian supply will rise to 4.7 mbpd by 2016 while US supply grows to 8.3 million bbls/d with US onshore shale formations driving the growth (shale from North Dakota and Texas could eventually produce at a rate of 2.5 mbpd). (McClatchy Newspapers, August 5, 2011) Angola and the UAE's are the main sources of OPEC crude production growth (2012-2016) while transportation will be the source of 80% of the growth in demand in 2016. Supply growth in non-opec countries is being led by Brazil (in 2011 non-opec production was up 760,000 bpd). In September JP Morgan estimated that oil supply will rise to 91.2 mbpd by 2013, a bullish position to take considering opec doesn't plan on contributing anything to growth in crude output (2009 is the year its plan to lower crude output to 29.4 mbpd took effect). Biofuels aren't expected to grow significantly until the 3Q of 2012 when they are forecast to rise to 2.4M bbls/d (up 20% quarter to quarter).

2010 was a big year for opec ngl (gas liquids) production; Averaged over the entire year, output surpassed 5m bbls/d for the time ever (avg given as 5.5m by the IEA) up from 4.7m the year before, though during the year rates changed a lot (5.2m bbls/d early in the year down to 5.08m by May before rising later on). A lot of that increase came from Saudi Arabia (1.7M bpd, up 8%) where a number of projects started in 2009, finally came online. (Kingdom's growth expected to reach 6.5% this year) Algeria produces about 800,000 bpd of NGL's out of 2.125M bbls/d, the highest proportion of NGL output by any of opec's members. Algeria is also a top 6 producer of natural gas. World refinery capacity: 88.6773 million barrels per calendar day (b/cd) 9.9% of which came from opec (9.5% in 2006). What's striking is that the key sources of new production Venezuela (down 5.5% since 2006) and Canada (down 6.8% since 2006) aren't focused on refining their own oil (in Canada for example, oil is being redirected to other places such as the U.S. through new pipelines the largest of which will be the $7B Keystone Pipeline ($13B system) if approved (opposition from environmental groups despite approval from Greenpeace Founder, American refining capacity up to 17.869Mbblpd in 2010). Between 2011 and 2015 Keystone could create as many as 250,000 jobs associated with construction of the pipeline (20,000 long term in the US/$20B to US economy). (US Chamber of Commerce) China's refining capacity is 38% as much as the USA's even though it produces 50% as much oil. Saudi Arabia, the world's number two source of oil is also a big consumer, consuming 2.81 million barrels per day in 2011 75% higher than in 2001, in the 1990's its consumption grew by only 39%. In just 2010/2011 demand by Saudi's rose 5.4% per capita, 4X greater than the global average. Part of the reason it consumes so much has to do with its use of crude oil in generating electricity, rather than using refined oil it burns the oil directly making use of it inefficiently (2009 demand from there was 450,000 bpd or twice what it was just seven year earlier while in Riyadh demand is expected to exceed 580,000 bpd in 2011).

By Country

China - Oil output from China has risen steadily over the past decade (from 3.0M in 1995 up to 3.9M in 2009 and past 4M bbls/d in 2010; 7% growth in 2009) however Chinese oil demand has skyrocketed (3.3M bbls/d in 1995 (only 10% higher than domestic prod) to 4.1M in 1998, 5M in 2002, pushing past 8M by 2009). It took from 1998 to 2002 for China demand to rise by 1M bbls/d but only 1.5 yrs for the next 1M increase. Total demand by China is still less than American demand (18.7M bbls/d vs 8.4M bbls/d). Higher demand could force China to increase refining in the country by 14% (the Tianjin refinery in China is one of many being built; Tinjin is a $4.5B joint venture between Russia's Rosneft (China is a top 4 destination for Russian oil) and CNPC of China. Rosneft owns 49% of the 200,000 bpd refinery that will be 70% fed by oil from East Siberia. Between 2006 and 2010 Chinese imports of natural gas exploded by 1500% (1000 to 15,980M cubic meters).

Saudi Arabia - Production dropped significantly between 2008 (9-10M) and 2011 (8.9M in February-April but increased to 9.8M bbls/d by July; domestic demand : 2.4M bbls/d). (International Energy Agency - Oil Market Report 12 May 2011), (International Energy Agency - 2010 Edition) Crude oil exports by Saudi Arabia suffered in the late 1980's before recovering in the early 1990's (tripled in just a couple years). ( Between 2000 and 2010 consumption in Saudi Arabia has risen more than 75% (up to 3.1% of global demand) an increase that exceeds even changes in India's demand. Production averaged 8.8M bbls/d in the first half of 2011 (peaked at 9.1M in May) up from 8.3M bbls/d in the first half of 2010. Saudi Arabia ranks sixth in the world in terms of oil demand. The higher rates of production in the summer of 2011 were a direct response to Saudi Arabia's promise to replace Libyan production (Saudi Arabia increased its output by 1.1 mil bpd since the outbreak of war in Libya).

Alberta, Canada - According to Alberta's 2012 budgetary report, total oil production will reach 3M bpd by 2014, 2.4M of that is from non-conventional sources like bitumen (bitumen royalties totalled $5.7B in 2011 will be $9.9B in 2014).  2011-2012: non-conventional oil production was at 1.78 million barrels per day.  Conventional oil production will be 500,000 bpd in 2013.  Provincial royalty revenue:  Bitumen contributed $5.7B of the $6.5B total which includes conventinal, in 2012, 30% higher than the $4.4B earned the year before.  Total will be around $12.2B in 2014.

Russia - The world's largest supplier of oil. Russia's economy is heavily invested in oil (state oil company Rosneft produced more than 2M bbls/d while Gazprom is one of the world Oil Majors). On september 20, 2011 it was reported by the Voice of Russia that $20/bbl difference in the price of oil could mean the difference between GDP growth of 2% and a recession (predicated on oil prices decreasing to $60/bbl for an extended period of time). Consequently, a fall in oil demand would cause a 1.5% drop in gdp growth. Though unlike most developed countries, Russian household debt is low and so a recovery (from recession) would be relatively quick. (World Bank warns of possible global oil demand fall:Voice of Russia) In 2009 Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia in terms of production. Russia is also the world's second leading producer of natural gas, providing 19.3% of global supplies (gas reserves are the largest- proved reserves at 1680T ft3/26.7% of global reserves). In 2010 Russia's gas production rose 4.5% while domestic consumption fell 3.3% pushing net exports up 29% (6,539BCF ranking 86 among all countries). (U.S. Energy Information Administration: Russia Briefing) China was the 4th largest importer of Russian oil in 2009 (Germany was 1st), but China could be top 3 by 2011/2012 with exports to China rising from Russia increasing 20-30% annually (70% of crude used in China's newest refinery in Tiajin will come from East Siberia). Russian oil exports to the US were 21.% higher in 2009 (rank 9th, Canada is the main source of imported oil).

USA - In 2008 the United States depended on oil imports to supply 67% of what its refineries used but by 2010 that number dropped to 49%, the decline has more to do with a rise in exports of petroleum products (in 2010 the US became a net exporter of petro products for the first time since 1973). The last time the United States experienced such a drastic drop in foreign dependence to meet its oil needs was between 1977 and 1982 when foreign oil met only 28% of demand (production from Alaska also played a key role). Between 2006 and 2010 imported petro production fell by about 25% or 1 million bpd.

Libya - Crude: Production (at 100%) 2% of global supply, reserves: 3.3% of world total.
Natural Gas: production: 0.5% of global supply, reserves: 0.8% of world's total. ( Libya: MIneral Industry Overview)
references: output for 2011 and beyond reflects revised data released by the US Energy Agency (not accounted for in IEA's September report shown in the table.

For more information about petroleum specifically the oil sands coming out of Canada visit Alberta Oil - North American Interests

Information from Saudi Arabia
International Energy Agency data from 1995 to 2009
2016 forecasts full report

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