Greek bank stocks stand to benefit from recent developments. August 29 - Greece National Bank Shareholders Approve Recapitalization Plan; August 11 - The New York Stock Exchange NYSE notified the bank that it must bring its market price back above $1.00 by February 2016.
National Bank of Greece has the most upside but don't ignore the risks
- in 2008 TT Hellenic Postbank aka Greek Postal Savings Bank was one of the world's 2000 largest companies - in 2013 it was forced into liquidation.
- best performing Greek stock since 2012 (price: 3.80->9.0)
- since 2008 is the only 'new' Greece-based company added to the Forbes Global 2000 list.
- least risky of Greece's eight major companies (five are banks most of which were on the verge of collapsing on the eve of the last bailout deal).
- oil refineries stand to benefit from low oil prices (takes months if not years for gas pump prices to reflect lower oil price). crack spread remains stable.
OPAP SA Greek Organization Football OTCMKTS:GOFPY
- weathered the global financial collapse in 2007/2008 fairly well (ranked 1009 on the Forbes Global 2000 list in 2008 before eventually falling out).
- worst performing major Greek company stock since new bailout package announced (end of June price: 3.5 -> 4.5 August 14 -> 3.75 August 31)
- Greeks voted to stay in the EU - that benefits the tourism industry which OPAP business is tied to.
National Bank of Greece NYSE:NBG
guaranteed access to EU taxpayers money when facing collapse, bank bailout
yes, this is a very risky investment but the reward could be substantial. The bank's market capitalization has been cut in half over the last 12 months ($4.2 billion -> $2.1 billion). Despite ongoing financial problems in Greece, between 2010 to 2013 the stock price spent most of the time oscillating between $25 and $35; It's now at 67 cents.
Keep in mind this has always been Greece's largest company - that takes away a bit of the risk since even in dire circumstances this is one of the first companies that the government will step in to support. Consider it Greece's version of a bank that's too big to fail.
- revenue is about the same as Greece's #2 and #3 banks combined
- since 2008 Forbes has routinely called it Greece's top company
- despite new bailout money stock price continued to plummet - to me this is a result of a wait-and-see approach by investors; institutional ownership only 3%.
- End of August: new European Union rule tied to the new Greece deal gives greater economic flexibility to Greece allows it to tap into additional EU funds in order to bailout the most important banks - even going as far as to consider tapping into taxpayer funds from throughout the EU.
Another reason to expect a rebound in the stock price:
The NYSE requirement that ADS share prices of stocks listed at the exchange be above $1.00. NYSE is threatening to delist the stock unless the company gets the price back up from $0.67 to to $1 (it has six months to do this - expiry date is February 11, 2016).